Time Specification
| Time Type | Start Date | End Date | Increment | No. observed |
| MONTH | 1973-01-01 | 1978-12-01 | 1 | 72 |
Exponential Smoothing: Parameter and Error Estimates [USAccDeaths]
| Alpha | Beta | Gamma | SSE | MSE | RMSE |
| 0.999934 | --- | --- | 3.78523e+07 | 533132 | 730.159 |
Exponential Smoothing: Coefficient Estimates
[USAccDeaths]
Double Exponential Smoothing: Parameter and Error Estimates [USAccDeaths]
| Alpha | Beta | Gamma | SSE | MSE | RMSE |
| 1 | 0.109594 | --- | 4.58233e+07 | 654619 | 809.085 |
Double Exponential Smoothing: Coefficient Estimates
[USAccDeaths]
Fitted Values and Residuals for Model Fit [USAccDeaths]
| Date/Time | USAccDeaths | Exponential: Fitted Values | Exponential: Residuals | Double-Exponential: Fitted Values | Double-Exponential: Residuals |
| 1973-01-01 | 9007 | | | | |
| 1973-02-01 | 8106 | 9007 | -901 | | |
| 1973-03-01 | 8928 | 8106.06 | 821.94 | 7205 | 1723 |
| 1973-04-01 | 9137 | 8927.95 | 209.054 | 8215.83 | 921.17 |
| 1973-05-01 | 10017 | 9136.99 | 880.014 | 8525.78 | 1491.22 |
| 1973-06-01 | 10826 | 10016.9 | 809.058 | 9569.21 | 1256.79 |
| 1973-07-01 | 11317 | 10825.9 | 491.053 | 10515.9 | 801.051 |
| 1973-08-01 | 10744 | 11317 | -572.968 | 11094.7 | -350.739 |
| 1973-09-01 | 9713 | 10744 | -1031.04 | 10483.3 | -770.3 |
| 1973-10-01 | 9938 | 9713.07 | 224.932 | 9367.88 | 570.12 |
| 1973-11-01 | 9161 | 9937.99 | -776.985 | 9655.36 | -494.362 |
| 1973-12-01 | 8927 | 9161.05 | -234.051 | 8824.18 | 102.817 |
| 1974-01-01 | 7750 | 8927.02 | -1177.02 | 8601.45 | -851.451 |
| 1974-02-01 | 6981 | 7750.08 | -769.078 | 7331.14 | -350.137 |
| 1974-03-01 | 8038 | 6981.05 | 1056.95 | 6523.76 | 1514.24 |
| 1974-04-01 | 8422 | 8037.93 | 384.07 | 7746.72 | 675.285 |
| 1974-05-01 | 8714 | 8421.97 | 292.025 | 8204.72 | 509.278 |
| 1974-06-01 | 9512 | 8713.98 | 798.019 | 8552.54 | 959.464 |
| 1974-07-01 | 10120 | 9511.95 | 608.053 | 9455.69 | 664.313 |
| 1974-08-01 | 9823 | 10120 | -296.96 | 10136.5 | -313.492 |
| 1974-09-01 | 8743 | 9823.02 | -1080.02 | 9805.14 | -1062.14 |
| 1974-10-01 | 9129 | 8743.07 | 385.929 | 8608.73 | 520.268 |
| 1974-11-01 | 8710 | 9128.97 | -418.974 | 9051.75 | -341.75 |
| 1974-12-01 | 8680 | 8710.03 | -30.0277 | 8595.3 | 84.7038 |
| 1975-01-01 | 8162 | 8680 | -518.002 | 8574.58 | -412.579 |
| 1975-02-01 | 7306 | 8162.03 | -856.034 | 8011.36 | -705.363 |
| 1975-03-01 | 8124 | 7306.06 | 817.943 | 7078.06 | 1045.94 |
| 1975-04-01 | 7870 | 8123.95 | -253.946 | 8010.69 | -140.688 |
| 1975-05-01 | 9387 | 7870.02 | 1516.98 | 7741.27 | 1645.73 |
| 1975-06-01 | 9556 | 9386.9 | 169.1 | 9438.63 | 117.368 |
| 1975-07-01 | 10093 | 9555.99 | 537.011 | 9620.49 | 472.506 |
| 1975-08-01 | 9620 | 10093 | -472.964 | 10209.3 | -589.278 |
| 1975-09-01 | 8285 | 9620.03 | -1335.03 | 9671.7 | -1386.7 |
| 1975-10-01 | 8466 | 8285.09 | 180.912 | 8184.72 | 281.277 |
| 1975-11-01 | 8160 | 8465.99 | -305.988 | 8396.55 | -236.55 |
| 1975-12-01 | 8034 | 8160.02 | -126.02 | 8064.63 | -30.6252 |
| 1976-01-01 | 7717 | 8034.01 | -317.008 | 7935.27 | -218.269 |
| 1976-02-01 | 7461 | 7717.02 | -256.021 | 7594.35 | -133.348 |
| 1976-03-01 | 7767 | 7461.02 | 305.983 | 7323.73 | 443.266 |
| 1976-04-01 | 7925 | 7766.98 | 158.02 | 7678.31 | 246.687 |
| 1976-05-01 | 8623 | 7924.99 | 698.01 | 7863.35 | 759.652 |
| 1976-06-01 | 8945 | 8622.95 | 322.046 | 8644.6 | 300.398 |
| 1976-07-01 | 10078 | 8944.98 | 1133.02 | 8999.52 | 1078.48 |
| 1976-08-01 | 9179 | 10077.9 | -898.925 | 10250.7 | -1071.72 |
| 1976-09-01 | 8037 | 9179.06 | -1142.06 | 9234.26 | -1197.26 |
| 1976-10-01 | 8488 | 8037.08 | 450.925 | 7961.05 | 526.949 |
| 1976-11-01 | 7874 | 8487.97 | -613.97 | 8469.8 | -595.802 |
| 1976-12-01 | 8647 | 7874.04 | 772.959 | 7790.51 | 856.495 |
| 1977-01-01 | 7792 | 8646.95 | -854.949 | 8657.37 | -865.372 |
| 1977-02-01 | 6957 | 7792.06 | -835.057 | 7707.53 | -750.533 |
| 1977-03-01 | 7726 | 6957.06 | 768.945 | 6790.28 | 935.721 |
| 1977-04-01 | 8106 | 7725.95 | 380.051 | 7661.83 | 444.172 |
| 1977-05-01 | 8890 | 8105.97 | 784.025 | 8090.51 | 799.493 |
| 1977-06-01 | 9299 | 8889.95 | 409.052 | 8962.13 | 336.874 |
| 1977-07-01 | 10625 | 9298.97 | 1326.03 | 9408.05 | 1216.95 |
| 1977-08-01 | 9302 | 10624.9 | -1322.91 | 10867.4 | -1565.42 |
| 1977-09-01 | 8314 | 9302.09 | -988.087 | 9372.86 | -1058.86 |
| 1977-10-01 | 8850 | 8314.07 | 535.935 | 8268.81 | 581.188 |
| 1977-11-01 | 8265 | 8849.96 | -584.965 | 8868.51 | -603.507 |
| 1977-12-01 | 8796 | 8265.04 | 530.961 | 8217.37 | 578.634 |
| 1978-01-01 | 7836 | 8795.96 | -959.965 | 8811.78 | -975.781 |
| 1978-02-01 | 6892 | 7836.06 | -944.063 | 7744.84 | -852.841 |
| 1978-03-01 | 7791 | 6892.06 | 898.938 | 6707.38 | 1083.62 |
| 1978-04-01 | 8192 | 7790.94 | 401.059 | 7725.13 | 466.866 |
| 1978-05-01 | 9115 | 8191.97 | 923.027 | 8177.3 | 937.701 |
| 1978-06-01 | 9434 | 9114.94 | 319.061 | 9203.07 | 230.934 |
| 1978-07-01 | 10484 | 9433.98 | 1050.02 | 9547.37 | 936.625 |
| 1978-08-01 | 9827 | 10483.9 | -656.931 | 10700 | -873.023 |
| 1978-09-01 | 9110 | 9827.04 | -717.043 | 9947.35 | -837.345 |
| 1978-10-01 | 9070 | 9110.05 | -40.0474 | 9138.58 | -68.5772 |
| 1978-11-01 | 8633 | 9070 | -437.003 | 9091.06 | -458.062 |
| 1978-12-01 | 9240 | 8633.03 | 606.971 | 8603.86 | 636.139 |